1. What we know so far
  • the spread of the virus is fairly constant across all countries - the numbers affected increase by a factor of about five every week.
  • simple mathematics (exponential increase) means that this will mean a change from 300 cases to 300,000 cases in the space of one month
  • about 15% of those infected will require specialised care - in one month we can expect about 50,000 people will need specialised care. 
    At present there are just under 5000 intensive care beds in the UK the vast majority already in use
  • at present death rates appear between 1% and 3% - but that assumes access to healthcare. 
    As systems break down many of the 15% needing specialised care will die
  • changes in consumer behaviour means that many competent people are losing their economic activity